Could Trump Immigration Reform Derail Tech Stocks?

Make no mistake about it, the barons of Silicon Valley are up in arms over Donald Trump’s immigration policies. Despite a court order suspending Trump’s recent travel ban from seven Muslim countries, the tech titans are unlikely to relent on their attacks on Trump. It’s not all bleeding hearts at work here. Companies like Apple, Facebook and Microsoft recently signed an amicus notice with a New York district court coming out against the ban. The move is largely seen as a shot across the bow should Trump touch the sector’s all-important H1-B visa. Immigration lawyers in Washington tell us that they wouldn’t be surprised if Trump issued an executive order temporarily banning this year’s crop of foreign workers with H1-Bs. This would be a worst case scenario for individual tech stocks and tech-centric funds. The H1-B visa, for those unfamiliar with it, is used primarily by the large IT outsourcing firms from India, namely Infosys (INFY) INFY 19,17 -0,06 -0,31%, Wipro (WIT) WIT 6,07 -0,07 -1,06% and Tata Consultancy Services.  CEOs from the three biggies are coming to Washington this month. No date has been set. But investors should look for signs of a detente.  Negative headlines would include comments by Trump himself, Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton or Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions saying the H1-B visa program numbers need to come down. They are currently around 85,000.  Hints of suspending applications for this year woud be a disaster for tech stocks. Bretton Woods Research, a boutique investment research firm out of Long Valley, NJ, is currently hammering out a report for clients on what changes to the H1-B program would mean for popular tech trades like PowersShares Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) QQQ 437,48 +3,56 +0,82%, which is up so far this year while Indian IT stocks are in the red. If Trump sticks to his word of bringing in the “best and brightest” to the U.S., then the H1-B will stand and could even expand in a best-case scenario many tech investors are hoping for.