US Election: Civil War Lite – BCA Research – 2.12.20

Summary:

Now On Demand.

Join us the day after the New Hampshire primary for a discussion of where the US Election is headed and what impact that will have on investing in 2020 and beyond.

In this webcast, we will present our quantitative 2020 election model and our qualitative, constraints-based analysis of the election and likely market responses. Additional highlights of the discussion will include the following:

• Geopolitics is the most likely candidate to kill the bull market in 2020.
• The chief geopolitical and political risk is the US election cycle.
• President Trump is only slightly favored to win re-election. Democrats can win if unemployment rises or Trump’s approval rating falls sharply.
• Volatility is front-loaded in February and March due to the risk of a left-wing populist upsetting the favored Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the primary elections.
• For stocks, we will “buy the rumor, sell the news” of a Trump victory. The geopolitical risk would outweigh the domestic policy reflation.
• Go long gold.

Speaker:

Matt is currently BCA Research’s Strategist, Geopolitical Strategy. He oversees the firm’s coverage of market-relevant geopolitical, political, and policy developments across the world. Prior to joining BCA Research in 2015, Matt worked as a Senior Analyst at Strategic Forecasting, Inc (Stratfor) and in various academic and publishing roles. Matt holds an MPhil from the University of Cambridge and a PhD from the University of Texas at Austin.