Navigating the Coronavirus Panic – Ned Davis Research 3.26.20

Summary:

Now On Demand.

The market hates uncertainty, and Covid-19 has created conditions with few, if any, analogs for the market to draw from. However, previous panics provide some useful guideposts to watch. We will discuss what we are watching for signs that the market is recovering from the coronavirus shock.

Speakers:

Ed Clissold, CFA, is the Chief U.S. Strategist for Ned Davis Research Group. He and his team are responsible for the firm’s U.S. equity, style, sector and equity theme analysis. They do so via a combination of a top-down analysis of the macroeconomic and fundamental environments and a bottom-up analysis of factors specific to the asset class, market cap, style, sector, or theme. He and his team also provide in-depth macro research on fundamental topics such as earnings, dividends, and cash flow.

Ed writes several U.S. Strategy publications, which provide an intermediate-term outlook on U.S. markets via a combination of top-down and bottom-up analyses. He also writes a quarterly Benchmarks report, which analyzes the attribution of returns across asset classes, sectors, market cap, and styles.

Ed’s market commentary is often quoted in The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and other financial publications.

Ed has held a number of other positions since joining the firm in 2002, including Global Equity Strategist, Senior Global Analyst in the Global Asset Allocation group, and Analyst in the Custom Research Services department. Previously, Ed worked at Strong Capital Management and as a Market Strategist at J.C. Bradford & Co.

Ed is a CFA charterholder, a Magna Cum Laude graduate in Economics from Transylvania University, and has earned his Masters in Business Administration in Finance, with distinction, from Indiana University (Kelley).

Timothy W. Hayes, CMT, is NDRG’s Chief Global Investment Strategist. He has been with the firm since 1986. Tim directs NDRG’s global asset allocation services, develops strategy and major investment themes, and establishes NDRG’s weightings for global asset allocation, presenting his views on the cyclical and secular outlook globally.

Tim’s recommendations, strategies, and timely market commentaries and studies are featured in Global Strategy publications, which focus on global allocation and the most significant global developments.

Tim has been featured many times on CNBC and Bloomberg TV, and his market views are often quoted in The Wall Street Journal and other financial media in the U.S. and internationally. He is author of The Research-Driven Investor, published in November 2000, and he has contributed to several other books. His research articles have appeared in the Journal of Technical Analysis, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, and other publications.

Tim received his Bachelor of Arts degree from Kenyon College, and he is a Chartered Market Technician. In 2008, the Investorside Research Association honored Tim with its Research Excellence Award for “Exiting Equities in ‘07.” In 1996, the Market Technicians Association awarded Tim the Charles H. Dow Award for groundbreaking research, recognizing an outstanding original work that best expounds on the principles of technical analysis.

Joseph Kalish is the Chief Global Macro Strategist for Ned Davis Research Group. He has been following and studying financial and economic trends for over 30 years. He and his team are responsible for all of the firm’s bond and economic analysis.

Joe authors several publications. On the fixed income side, he writes a monthly strategy Focus on global trends and one on U.S. trends. He supplements his analysis with weekly Comment pieces on both the global and U.S. outlooks. Joe is a regular contributor to other macro publications, including Featured Reports, the U.S. Economic Focus, and the U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives.

The Macro team also assists the firm’s equity strategists by identifying relevant economic trends and fundamental themes and providing historical market perspectives. They collaborate with the Global Strategy team and provide economic analysis through global and regional commentary. They also work closely with the U.S. Strategy team in helping to formulate the economic outlook for the major sectors of the economy. In recent years, Joe has been particularly focused on credit trends and credit-sensitive sectors of the economy, including residential and commercial real estate, auto- motive, banking, manufacturing, and trade and has written extensively on these topics.

In addition to the bond and economic analysis, Joe has held a number of other positions since joining the company in July 1986 including: editor of Industry Watch (an analysis of equity group trends), editor of Techno-Fundamental Ranks (a stock screening service), and associate editor of Stock Market Strategy. Joe was also a portfolio manager and trader for an equity mutual fund for five years.

Ned Davis, Senior Investment Strategist, founded Ned Davis Research Group (NDR), in 1980. Ned has been professionally involved in the stock market for over 50 years. While arguing that forecasting reliably (“Being Right”) is impossibly difficult, he espouses a philosophy that he feels can consistently win (“Make Money”) through a disciplined strategy of following the weight of objective indicator evidence. Because he also believes flexibility (ability to adapt) is crucial, Ned Davis Research Group also produces many sentiment indicators warning investors to be wary at crowd extremes, and helping them to be open-minded about potential trend changes. A self-proclaimed risk manager, Ned dedicates his research to avoiding major mistakes, cutting losses short, and letting profits run.

Ned is the author ofBeing Right or Making Money and The Triumph of Contrarian Investing. He has been the subject of numerous featured interviews in Barron’s, and has been a featured guest many times on the late Lou Rukeyser’sWall Street Week. NDR is widely quoted by various media and Wall Street sources.

Ned is a Phi Beta Kappa graduate of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He attended the Harvard Business School.

Alejandra Grindal is the Senior International Economist for Ned Davis Research Group. She is the primary person in charge of the firm’s global economic outlook, and is responsible for identifying global economic trends and themes, particularly as they relate to developments in equity, fixed income, commodity, and currency markets. In recent years, Alejandra has been particularly focused on global demographics and labor force trends, China’s economic transition, and Japan’s lost decade. She joined Ned Davis Research Group in 2006.

Alejandra is a member of the National Association for Business Economics, where she is co- chair of the International Roundtable. She is a frequent speaker at professional and investment conferences and her work has been cited in the financial media.

Prior to joining Ned Davis Research Group, Alejandra taught Microeconomics and Macroeconomics at Florida State University during her graduate studies, and then worked as a full-time professor at Santa Fe College and Edison College. Alejandra also worked in British Parliament as a research assistant, where she participated in policy and constituent research and campaign marketing.

Alejandra received her Masters degree in Economics and a Bachelor of Science degree in Economics and International Affairs, with summa cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa distinction, from Florida State University.

Pat Tschosik,CFA,CMT, is Ned Davis Research’s U.S. Sector Strategist. Pat authors U.S. Equity Sector Strategy publications, which provide insights on U.S. sector and industry leadership trends and themes based on macro, fundamental, valuation, quantitative, and technical analysis. Pat also makes overweight and underweight recommendations on all 11 GICS sectors relative to an S&P 500 benchmark. Given the top-down approach, Pat works closely with Chief U.S. Strategist Ed Clissold to incorporate firm market views and Chief Global Macro Strategist Joe Kalish to incorporate macro views into his analysis.

Prior to the U.S. Sector strategist role, Pat served as NDR’s Consumer Strategist for nearly 10 years. Pat began his investment career covering Consumer Staples for Bankof America Capital Management in St. Louis, MO. Subsequently, Pat worked as a Senior Equity Analyst at RCM Capital Management in San Francisco, CA, covering Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples industries. He joined Ned Davis Research Group in 2006.

Pat has been featured as a guest onCNBCandBloombergtelevision in addition to being quoted byThe Wall Street Journal. Pat earned his Master of Business Administration from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and has a Bachelor of Science in Computer Science from Illinois State University. Pat is a CFA charterholder and is a member of the CFA Institute. He is also a Chartered Market Technician and a member of the Market Technicians Association.