Market Watching Trump vs Xi Jinping

“In this corner, weighing in at 225 pounds, hailing from New York City, The President! And now, from Beijing, weighing 210 pounds, the Asian Sensation, the one true leader of the second best country in the world, Xi Jinpiiiiiiiiiing…” Cue in the USA! USA! chants. The market will be watching these two titans of global trade go at it in Florida on Thursday. How will the market react? Honestly, nobody knows. The iShares FTSE China (FXI 24,02 -0,11 -0,46%) is up half a percent this morning, with the Deutsche X-Trackers China A-Shares (ASHR 24,53 -0,17 -0,69%) up nearly 1% in light volume. “Investors are interested to see if both leaders are capable of creating a plan which could be mutually beneficial for both countries,” says currency trader and chief market strategist Naeem Aslam from ThinkMarkets. “Everybody knows that Trump has called China a currency manipulator and he does not believe that the U.S. has a fair deal with China,” he says, unwilling to stick his neck out and make a trade on this. Worth noting on Wednesday, J.P. Morgan CEO Jaime Dimon said Trump is right on China. The U.S. does not have a fair deal with the world’s No. 2 economy. Investors are now wondering if Florida headlines will hurt the U.S. or China, or both. The best case scenario is that Trump reiterates his “love” for China and its new burgeoning entrepreneurial class. And out of this we get some notion of a new trade and investment deal in the works. Barring Trump body slamming Xi to the mat for a three count, calling him a currency manipulator and announcing trade tariffs, any declines from news headlines will be a knee-jerk reaction simply too hard to predict. Most advisors are thinking long term for their clients, and so a base case scenario of fairer trade is good for the U.S., but also good for China which has new markets in Asia to sell too; a growing middle class; and slowly opening capital markets that will continue to attract global fund managers in both equity and renmimbi-priced fixed income. That trend will not change following Thursday and Friday’s meet-and-greet between the two leaders.