In 2025, Gold has been a big story with +38% returns YTD. But can you guess what’s right behind? Feeder Cattle is up +37% YTD, and Live Cattle is up +30% YTD. Diversified commodity returns have been somewhat muted in 2025, with the BCOM Index up just +5% by late September*. Individual commodity returns can vary significantly from the average, especially in overlooked sectors such as livestock and softs (we’ve written recently about Cocoa and Coffee).
What’s behind this price rise in beef? As we often find with commodities, it’s a supply and demand story. Demand for beef has remained robust, and supply has been decreasing noticeably. Cattle-on-Feed figures were reported by the USDA as of July 1, 2025, and the U.S. has 94.2 million total cattle and calf inventory. This may seem large, but in fact it is a 70-year low!
Many ranchers have accelerated culling of their herds due to rising input costs: higher interest rates and higher feed costs. Since the enactment of the Renewable Fuel Standard in 2007, corn use in ethanol has risen steadily to now roughly 40% of the entire U.S. corn crop.
This competition for corn use has contributed to rising feed prices as well. High prices often cure high prices, and there will be attempts for herd rebuilding when conditions improve for U.S. ranchers.
However, given the long lead time to bring new cattle to market, you may want to start saving now for your 2026 summer BBQ! In the meantime, consider commodity index benchmarks like the SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Index (SDCI), which includes both Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle within its eligible commodity universe.
* BCOM Index and BCOM Gold, Feeder Cattle and Live Cattle Indexes (excess return)
Accepted for 1 CFP / IWI / CFA CE Credit
Speakers:
John LovePresident & Chief Executive OfficerUSCF Investments
John P. Love is President and Chief Executive Officer of USCF, a Walnut Creek, California based investment firm.
Mr. Love previously served as Senior Portfolio Manager for USCF’s products, including the United States Oil Fund (USO) and United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), the largest oil and natural gas ETFs in the U.S. Since USCF’s founding, Mr. Love has contributed to the firm’s evolution through operations, trading, research, product development, marketing, capital markets, and more.
Mr. Love is a graduate of the University of Southern California. He holds NFA Series 3, 30 and FINRA Series 7, 63 registrations and is a CFA Charterholder.
Kurt NelsonChief Executive OfficerSummerHaven Index Management
Kurt is the CEO and Founder of SummerHaven. He previously ran the commodity index business for UBS and led the successful effort to acquire and integrate AIG’s commodity index business. Prior to joining UBS, Kurt structured commodity index and equity derivative solutions for clients of AIG Financial Products. SummerHaven Index Management, LLC creates innovative fundamental indexes focused on providing investors with better risk-adjusted returns than traditional indexes. The firm is led by a seasoned management team with over 110 years of collective financial markets experience with commodity futures, equity and fixed income markets. USCF has partnered with SummerHaven on several funds including the United States Commodity Index Fund (USCI), the United States Copper Index Fund (CPER), the USCF SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Strategy No K-1 Fund (SDCI) and the USCF Gold Strategy Plus Income Fund (GLDX).
For Financial Professionals Only.
All investing involves risk including loss of principal.
John Love is a Registered Representatives of ALPS Distributors, Inc.
ALPS Distributors, Inc., is not affiliated with USCF Advisers, LLC.
Funds distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc.
