Commodities, Infrastructure and Inflation: Transitory or Entrenched? – ALPS USCF – 8.12.21

Summary:

Now On Demand. Over the last three months, U.S. CPI rose from 4.2% to 5.0% to 5.4% year-over-year. These are the highest annual inflation levels since 2008 when crude oil traded at $140 per barrel. Crude oil is now trading around $75 per barrel, nearly 50% lower than prices in 2008, indicating a significantly lower base commodity price level even as inflation and prices continue to rise. Many allocators are underweight commodities and real assets under the assumption that the U.S. economy is experiencing “transitory inflation”. How confident should investors be regarding this tactical position, and what are the costs of being wrong should inflation persist for some time? What developments on the horizon could impact inflation expectations, such as lingering COVID-19 concerns and new U.S. infrastructure spending? We will examine U.S. inflation since WW II to help ground our recent experience and inform portfolio decision-making, including the role of diversified commodities for portfolio returns and diversification.

Speakers:

Ryan is USCF’s National Sales Director. In this capacity, Ryan is responsible for educating financial intermediaries on all USCF products, presenting USCF research and product development. Prior to joining USCF, Ryan was an Account Executive with Meridian-IQ where he worked with hundreds of financial services firms, including USCF, to help maximize their distribution efforts with the use of data and technology. Ryan is a graduate of Florida State University with degrees in Finance and Real Estate. Ryan is also a 2020 candidate in the Duke Fuqua Global executive MBA program. He holds NFA series 3 and 30 registrations as well as FINRA Series 7 and 63 and is a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst charterholder.

Kurt is a Founding Partner of SummerHaven and serves as Managing Partner. Previously, he was Head of the Commodity Index business at UBS Investment Bank. He was a member of the Supervisory Committee for both the DJ-UBS Commodity Index (now known as the Bloomberg Commodity Index) and the UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index. Kurt was also responsible for launching the UBS Exchange-traded note platform (E-TRACS). Prior to UBS, Kurt created and managed the high net worth business for AIG Financial Products, and he also provided equity derivative and commodity index solutions for U.S. corporations, institutional investors and principal dealers. Kurt served in U.S. Navy Intelligence from 1988-1992, and he received his B.S. in Mathematics from the College of William and Mary.