Bulls vs. Bears: An Economic Showdown – Loomis, Sayles & Company – 12.4.23

Summary:

Now On Demand

Are you team hard landing or soft landing? Can the US economy withstand elevated interest rates across the curve for the next year or more? Some historically accurate indicators suggest the credit cycle has been edging toward downturn for about a year. But tailwinds have also emerged, and it’s not clear when or if the cycle will tip over. There are a number of cross-currents within the macro landscape that investors should consider.

Join members of Loomis Sayles’ Macro Strategies team for a spirited debate about what’s next for the credit cycle. Global Macro Strategist Craig Burelle will moderate a panel featuring Global Macro Strategists Tyler Silvey, Saurabh Lele and Greg Hadjian. Each strategist will make their case for one of three potential scenarios: a soft landing, a higher for longer scenario, or a downturn. The debate and conclusions may surprise you.

Speakers:

Michael Crowell is the director of quantitative research risk analysis (QRRA) and co-director of macro strategies at Loomis, Sayles & Company. As director of QRRA, he works with the portfolio teams primarily across four dimensions: risk analysis, relative value, portfolio construction, and product and process design and refinement. Michael joined Loomis Sayles in 2007 as a client portfolio analyst. He later became a quantitative analyst for the QRRA group where he helped to build the foundation of our proprietary risk model infrastructure and worked with portfolio managers on customizing this framework to fit their specific investment processes. In 2013, Michael was promoted to a senior investment specialist. He began his investment industry career as a unit manager at Investors Bank & Trust, where he led a team of 10 employees in fund accounting and NAV generation for a family of six hedge funds. He earned a BS from Villanova University.

Craig Burelle is a global macro strategist covering credit for the macro strategies group at Loomis, Sayles & Company. His key areas of focus are split between US economics and interest rates, and global equity strategy. Craig joined Loomis Sayles in 2010 as a macro strategies associate. He earned a BS in finance and economics from the University of Massachusetts, Boston and a Master of Liberal Arts degree in finance from Harvard University.

Tyler Silvey is a global macro strategist covering asset allocation for the macro strategies group at Loomis, Sayles & Company. He helps coordinate the global asset allocation team (GAAT) process and utilizes the macro strategies group’s credit cycle framework to communicate team views and evaluate top-down relative value opportunities. Tyler joined Loomis Sayles in 2014 as a fixed income settlements administrator in the operations department. He joined the macro strategies group in 2017 as a research analyst. Tyler earned a BA from Bates College.

Saurabh Lele is a global macro strategist covering commodities for the macro strategies group at Loomis, Sayles & Company. He joined Loomis Sayles in 2012 as a commodities analyst from FBR Capital Markets, where he was a senior research associate in the energy research division. Saurabh earned a BE in mechanical engineering from the University of Mumbai and an MBA from Texas A&M University.

Gregory Hadjian is a global macro strategist covering Latin America for the macro strategies group at Loomis, Sayles & Company. During his career at Loomis Sayles, he has also served as the lead sovereign analyst for the Middle East and Africa regions. Greg joined Loomis Sayles in 2015 and has 11 years of investment industry experience. Previously, he worked at the International Monetary Fund, where he was a macroeconomic researcher and policy analyst in the Middle East and Central Asia Department. Prior to the IMF, Greg was an analyst at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, focusing on monetary policy operations and payment systems. Greg earned a BA in history from Cornell University and an MA with honors in international economics from Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).