Big data analytics shop, Babel Street, picked Emmanuel Macron to come out ahead in the first round of French elections last weekend. They were right. Here’s what they see coming down the pike during Sunday’s election between technocrat Macron and the anti-establishment candidate Marine Le Pen.
For starters, based on current traditional polling, Macron is projected to win approximately 60% of the second-round vote; a total rout against the nationalist, anti-EU politics of Le Pen.
Going forward, Babel Street collected approximately 80,000 media, blog, and message board posts between April 23 and April 30 to see if those polls are right again. Babel Street then analyzed the collected documents’ volume, sentiment, and content over time to determine the likely perspectives of French voters heading into Sunday.
The vote will have a massive impact on the euro, pound and on two major European ETFs, the Vanguard FTSE Europe (VGK 66,41 +0,11 +0,17%) and the iShares MSCI France (EWQ 41,41 -0,19 -0,46%), both beneficiaries of Europe’s economic recovery (led by Germany, Spain and the U.K.) and election losses of anti-euro politicians in The Netherlands, Germany, and now — perhaps — France.
It’s not a call on who is going to win. This is more about sentiment heading into Sunday.
The Media Popularity Contest
Le Pen was mentioned more times in the media than Macro in the seven day period mentioned above. Le Pen had a higher percentage of positive sentiment in her mentions in articles and in social media shares than Macron. However, she also had a higher percentage of negative sentiment. It’s fair to call her the Donald Trump of Paris, France.
There is more emotional connection to Le Pen than there is to Macron, and investors should be wary of that going into Sunday. Macron is a bore. He is basically seen as the Never Le Pen.
Between the aforementioned week long period, negative mentions of Macron increased while positive mentions decreased. This coincided perfectly with his dip in the polls this week. His decline is nowhere near enough to bring Le Pen within striking distance.
Overall, Babel Street analysis indicates that Le Pen maintains a large and consistent online presence. But the French electorate is just as likely to oppose her platform as support it. Despite Macron’s decreasing approval, he is considered a neutral, accessible candidate associated with a relatively favorable personal view. He will seal the deal in France this weekend.
Then again, for investors, it is always cheaper to bet against the house. A Le Pen upset would send the euro closer to parity against the dollar. It would also embolden British representatives in the European Parliament for a clean and quick Brexit. It goes without saying that a Le Pen upset would be bad for VGK and EWQ in the near-term as well. Behavioral Analytics Take A Stab At France
Big data analytics shop, Babel Street, picked Emmanuel Macron to come out ahead in the first round of French elections last weekend. They were right. Here’s what they see coming down the pike during Sunday’s election between technocrat Macron and the anti-establishment candidate Marine Le Pen.
For starters, based on current traditional polling, Macron is projected to win approximately 60% of the second-round vote; a total rout against the nationalist, anti-EU politics of Le Pen.
Going forward, Babel Street collected approximately 80,000 media, blog, and message board posts between April 23 and April 30 to see if those polls are right again. Babel Street then analyzed the collected documents’ volume, sentiment, and content over time to determine the likely perspectives of French voters heading into Sunday.
The vote will have a massive impact on the euro, pound and on two major European ETFs, the Vanguard FTSE Europe (VGK 66,41 +0,11 +0,17%) and the iShares MSCI France (EWQ 41,41 -0,19 -0,46%), both beneficiaries of Europe’s economic recovery (led by Germany, Spain and the U.K.) and election losses of anti-euro politicians in The Netherlands, Germany, and now — perhaps — France.
It’s not a call on who is going to win. This is more about sentiment heading into Sunday.
The Media Popularity Contest
Le Pen was mentioned more times in the media than Macro in the seven day period mentioned above. Le Pen had a higher percentage of positive sentiment in her mentions in articles and in social media shares than Macron. However, she also had a higher percentage of negative sentiment. It’s fair to call her the Donald Trump of Paris, France.
There is more emotional connection to Le Pen than there is to Macron, and investors should be wary of that going into Sunday. Macron is a bore. He is basically seen as the Never Le Pen.
Between the aforementioned week long period, negative mentions of Macron increased while positive mentions decreased. This coincided perfectly with his dip in the polls this week. His decline is nowhere near enough to bring Le Pen within striking distance.
Overall, Babel Street analysis indicates that Le Pen maintains a large and consistent online presence. But the French electorate is just as likely to oppose her platform as support it. Despite Macron’s decreasing approval, he is considered a neutral, accessible candidate associated with a relatively favorable personal view. He will seal the deal in France this weekend.
Then again, for investors, it is always cheaper to bet against the house. A Le Pen upset would send the euro closer to parity against the dollar. It would also embolden British representatives in the European Parliament for a clean and quick Brexit. It goes without saying that a Le Pen upset would be bad for VGK and EWQ in the near-term as well.