Beyond the K: The Many Layers of the US Consumer Economy – Loomis, Sayles & Company – 10.1.26

Summary:

Most people have heard of the "K-shaped consumer economy.” However, the reality is more layered than a resilient high-end consumer and a pressured low-end consumer. Beneath the headline data, distinct consumer segments are moving in directions that don’t fit neatly into a top-versus-bottom narrative.

Join our panel of macroeconomic, structured finance, credit research and portfolio management experts as they go beyond the K to unpack what’s really happening with US consumers. The discussion will cover macro trends (including a first look at our proprietary consumer health framework), real-time signals from consumer-facing companies and lenders, and how fixed income portfolio managers use these varied signals to shape their approach.

This session is aimed at equipping you with a data-driven, multi-lens view to inform conversations with your clients.

Accepted for 1 CFP / IWI / CFA CE Credit

Speakers:

Pramila Agrawal is the Head of the Custom Income Strategies (CIS) Group at Loomis, Sayles & Company and a Portfolio Manager for specialized fixed income mandates. She is also a member of the firm’s Board of Directors. Pramila’s areas of expertise include asset allocation, managing book income and tax-aware, cross asset portfolios spanning corporates, municipals and securitized. In her role, she co-manages assets with investment teams and collaborates with clients to design customized solutions. Pramila has over 18 years of investment industry experience and joined Loomis Sayles in 2007 as an Analyst on the Applied Integrated Quant (Applied IQ) Team. Later, she joined the Relative Return Team as a Strategist and was promoted to portfolio manager for the buy & maintain strategies in 2018. In 2019, Pramila was named Head of the CIS Group and began managing the municipal bond products in 2021. Prior to Loomis Sayles, she was in a research and development position at Metis Design. Pramila earned a bachelor’s degree in Engineering from Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani, in India, and a master’s of science degree and PhD in Robotics from Vanderbilt University, in Nashville, TN. She is a CFA^® charterholder.

Kathryn Coburn is a Credit Research Analyst at Loomis, Sayles & Company, where she covers retail, food, beverage and consumer products sectors. She began her investment industry career as a Credit Research Associate at Loomis Sayles in 2015. Kathryn earned a BS in finance from Emmanuel College and an MBA from Boston College.

Tom Fahey is a Co-Director of Macro Strategies at Loomis, Sayles & Company. He analyzes global investment conditions, conducts macro-oriented research to determine relative value between countries, currencies and asset classes, and develops tools and processes to facilitate investment decisions. Tom has 30 years of investment industry experience and joined Loomis Sayles in 2010.

Previously, he was a senior portfolio manager and global bond strategist at Standish Mellon Asset Management. Prior to joining Standish, Tom worked at The Bank Credit Analyst (BCA) Research Group as a foreign exchange strategist. He earned a BA from St. Francis Xavier University in Nova Scotia and an MA from Concordia University in Quebec.

Matt Novak is a Sovereign Analyst for the Macro Strategies Group at Loomis, Sayles & Company. In this role, he conducts research on Latin American sovereign debt and provides support for analyzing the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Matt is also responsible for building out the team’s methodology for assigning ESG scores to all covered sovereigns. He joined Loomis Sayles in 2018 from State Street Global Advisors, where he was a performance analyst responsible for calculating total and securitized returns of active equity accounts and analyzing the effects of asset allocation and security selection. Prior to this, Matt was a fund accountant at State Street Bank, where he was responsible for calculating daily NAVs for external clients’ mutual funds and posting daily trades, expense accruals and dividend adjustments. He earned a BS in mathematical economics from Gettysburg College and an MS in applied economics at Boston College. Matt is a CFA^® charterholder.

Jennifer Thomas is a Co-Portfolio Manager on the Structured Finance Team at Loomis, Sayles & Company, where she co-manages the investment grade securitized credit and Opportunistic securitized credit strategies. Prior to this role, she was a Senior Analyst, specializing in ABS with a focus on consumer ABS. Jennifer is responsible for generating relative value trade ideas to help enhance portfolios and achieve investment objectives, and collaborating on structured product-related initiatives with Client Services and Marketing. In addition, she has also supported the credit and research efforts in CMBS. Jennifer joined Loomis Sayles in 2007 and has 24 years of investment industry experience.

Previously, Jennifer worked at Sun Capital Advisers, LLC where she began as an associate investment analyst and trading assistant on the mortgage backed securities and corporate bond trading desk, responsible for trading, compliance and ad-hoc portfolio management reporting, executing trades and maintaining portfolios, and assisting with detailed investigations for trade discrepancies or fails. Later she was a fixed income investment analyst responsible for performing analysis and trade recommendations for transportation, environmental services and provincial services sectors, and providing analysis and recommendations of high grade corporate bonds and agency MBS.

Jennifer earned a BS from Bryant University and an MBA from Clark University. She is a Board Member of the Structured Finance Association (SFA).