Maybe it’s because of the Syria imbroglio, or markets being in a holding pattern over Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping, but on Friday, the non-farm payroll numbers did absolutely nothing for animal spirits in the market.
Consensus got this one way wrong. The market expected non-farm payrolls (NFP) to be up 180,000. They got 98,000. Retail layoffs were cited as one of the main reasons as e-commerce (read: Amazon) continues to crush American shopping malls.
The dollar rolled over on the back of this number. The data has shown that wage gains are still solid and this is a positive sign which the market may be ignoring. In summary, lower unemployment and fewer jobs being created confirm what many believe: we are basically at full employment. Wage inflation is coming.
Friday’s numbers confirmed that February’s consensus beat was an anomaly as many were arguing that the rise was because of a mild winter.
Most of the past six NFP reports have generated very little movement in the S&P, notes John Schlitz, chief market strategist for Chaikin Analytics.
“Keep in mind that those numbers don’t tell the entire story, as the actual number is then revised each month over the next two months,” he says. Revisions can be substantial, although the last two were relatively minor. Non-Farm Payroll Does Nothing For Market
Maybe it’s because of the Syria imbroglio, or markets being in a holding pattern over Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping, but on Friday, the non-farm payroll numbers did absolutely nothing for animal spirits in the market.
Consensus got this one way wrong. The market expected non-farm payrolls (NFP) to be up 180,000. They got 98,000. Retail layoffs were cited as one of the main reasons as e-commerce (read: Amazon) continues to crush American shopping malls.
The dollar rolled over on the back of this number. The data has shown that wage gains are still solid and this is a positive sign which the market may be ignoring. In summary, lower unemployment and fewer jobs being created confirm what many believe: we are basically at full employment. Wage inflation is coming.
Friday’s numbers confirmed that February’s consensus beat was an anomaly as many were arguing that the rise was because of a mild winter.
Most of the past six NFP reports have generated very little movement in the S&P, notes John Schlitz, chief market strategist for Chaikin Analytics.
“Keep in mind that those numbers don’t tell the entire story, as the actual number is then revised each month over the next two months,” he says. Revisions can be substantial, although the last two were relatively minor.